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Friday, January 22, 2016

Let's get realistic about the size and growth of the tech industry resulting from ageing

Many years ago, Bill Gates (remember him?) made a profound statement, in reference to the impact of technology: "We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction." He was right, but I think he could also have said : "be careful when building your short term business plans"

I think the waves of enthusiasm about the way that technology will change healthcare and all things to do with ageing is great but I have a foreboding that many businesses will overestimate the effort and time required to establish a viable revenue stream market. The result will be a lots of disappointment.

It doesn't do anybody any favours to pump up the size of the market. There will be a huge market but it will  take longer to establish than most of the pundits suggest.  I think Laurie Orlov's views are spot on. Interesting that her background is in world of technology market forecasting (as was mine). I guess we both learnt our lessons the hard way. Dick Stroud  


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