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Tuesday, April 05, 2016

Who will drive global consumption in the next 15 years? Hint - it isn't going to be Millennials.


Kim Walker wrote a detail blog post about the most important report that McKinsey has published in the last few years.

What groups of people will be the primary drivers of growth in the next decade or so? The largest segment is the 'Retiring and Elderly in the developed world'. Next comes the China's 15-59 year olds followed by American consumers of the same age. Of equal importance are China's 60+.

That means that 30% of the growth comes from the older consumer. Just savour that fact for a moment.

What about Millennials? In today's FT there is an article about this research that says:

Europe's Millennials will account for less than 2% of global consumption growth in the period to 2030. The director of McKinsey GI says : “the glamorisation of youth by marketers and advertising buyers is a vestige of the past”.

Let me make this really plain. Businesses that unquestioningly expect Millennials to drive their business growth will fail.

For a host of reasons, Millennials are not a large enough group and their income generating capacity is limited (as the media keeps telling us). Their short term contribution to global growth is  'noise level' compared to the economic power of their parents and grandparents.

Make the time and download the McKinsey report and understand the demographic drivers of consumer consumption. Unless you are willing and able to capture the spend of older consumers you are going to have one hell of are hard time. Dick Stroud

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