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Friday, December 09, 2016

Why the Chinese should worry (a lot) about the country's demographics

Some charts are good news when the slope goes down. This one is, most definitely, not one of those. It conveys why China has a terrifying problem.

What it shows is the numbers of Chinese workers who will be earning and hence funding the pensions of each person aged 65+. I know that 35 years seems like a lifetime, because it is, but in demographic terms it isn't long. Somehow China is going to have to find a way of living with such a massive upheaval in the country's finances caused with the numbers goes from 8 to 2.

All answers and suggestions on a postcard sent to Xi Jinping, President of China, Beijing.

We in the West should not be too smug about these numbers - in Europe the number is expected to be even worse (less than 2) and int the US, to just under 3. The difference we have with China is that our support ratio is already low. China's falls off a cliff.

Now we can play about with these numbers by raising the age of retirement. However, the overall message is bleak, bleak bleak. Dick Stroud




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