Monday, January 12, 2009

Job loss most likely to be among the young

I have talked a lot about the two phase recession. Phase 1, hit the assets of the old. Phase 2, hits jobs – the most keenly felt job losses being amongst the young. This is a gross simplification but bear with me.

Thanks to Rick Hartley for pointing out this analysis from The New York Times that demonstrates this happening. The age group 35-44 lost over a million jobs, the age group 55-64 gained over half a million.

OK, marketers, decision time. You are going to have to start to “picking winners”. One dimension of that is going to be old V young. Of course it is much more complex than it just being an age thing, but this is not a bad place to start.

The days of having the luxury of choice are fast disappearing. Dick Stroud


Cathy Warren said...

The Bureau of Labor Statistics chart tells an alarming story. Time to be one of "Those that makes things happen, not Those that have things happen to them or Those that stand around and ask, What's happening?"
The time is now to reinvent yourself.

Cathy Warren

Barrie Hopson said...

We have just got hold of UK statistics suggesting that the over 50's are 3 times as likely to lose their jobs as younger people. All the evidence from the US is suggesting the opposite. In our new book, The Rainbow Years: The Pluses of Being 50+, and in our blog, we are also taking the US line. The discrepancy is worrying. Can anyone suggest any reasons for this?

Dick Stroud said...

This article comes to the same conclusion.

Why the difference between the US and UK? One explanation is that either the US or UK stats are wrong! Following the recent hassle over the accuracy of UK data I am more likely to believe the figures from the US. I think we need to wait another quarter before we really see what is happening with employment.