Thursday, April 13, 2017

Increasing life expectancy was yesterday's story. Today and tomorrow is about cash strapped health services and eating too much.

The ONS (Office for National Statistics) has a natty bit of software that enables you to calculate your likely death and the probability of living longer.

The image shows that a male child, age one, according to government forecasts, should have an average life expectancy of 91 and 10% chance of making it to 106.

I wonder if this model has been updated with the most recent data that showed that life expectancy is plateauing, much to benefit of government that will have less expenditure on pensions. 

I just do not believe these optimistic forecasts. Recent research from the US suggests that number of people dying from diabetes is massively understated  - by a factor of four. The health and care systems in the UK are in a chronic state, the levels of exercise that people take is far to low, whilst the country's obesity is one of the worst in Europe.

In the past, the forecasters always underestimated the increase in longevity. Now they are way to optimistic. Dick Stroud

No comments: