End of year marketing predictions

I have just been asked to write a few words about my predictions for the future of marketing in 2005, for the December issue of a UK marketing mag. I was sorely tempted to say “beats the hell out of me”. Harold McMillan, a prime minister from long ago could have been talking about marketing when he said the things that determined the shape of his administration’s future were “events dear boy, events”. So it is with marketing.

An explosion in the price of oil, an attack by terrorists, a hike in interest rates or the collapse of the housing market – each could nullify any of these predictions. So I suppose the first thing we need to agree is that in these troubled times marketing has lost control of its own future; it is 100% reactive.

But, assuming nothing terribly bad or unbelievably good happens, I think these are the hot predictions for 2005 and beyond:

Prediction 1. Online will become mainstream, with a capital M. The mismatch between the spend on online marketing and the media’s importance to the consumer will disappear. The terrors of the dot.com era will finally be put to bed.

Prediction 2. Retailers will either win big time or perish. It’s no coincidence that many of the big high street retailers are in trouble. W H Smiths, Sainsbury, Boots and M&S have all lost their way; the consumer has noticed and reacted, with horrible results. The economics of retailing in 2005 means that just muddling through is not good enough. There are 3 -5 obvious candidates in the “muddling through” category.

Prediction 3. The importance of the charmed generation will finally be noticed by marketers. There is a clear link between the pension’s crisis and consumer spending. One way or another lot of money is going to disappear from consumers’ pockets to plug the pension’s gap and that means less consumption. The big exception are people who have retired or are close to retiring.

Prediction 4. We will hear a lot more about the concept of “mass affluence”. P&G has shown that discerning and wealthy consumers will pay high prices for new innovative consumer products. There is a lucrative market between the luxury and mass produced products that companies have largely ignored. If you want to understand more put the Harvard Business School book, “Mass affluence” on your Xmas present list.

Prediction 5. Obesity will slim down as an issue for food producers and retailers. After grabbing the headlines during 2004, the obesity issue will fade from the public’s consciousness. There will be some residual hangover and it may well flare up again but the bulging waistlines will be around for a few more years.

Prediction 5 ½ . During 2005, like 2004, marketers will moan that they are misunderstood and under-valued by senior corporate managers. This prediction is the easiest to make and the most likely to come true



Have you any predictions to add to this list? Dick Stroud www.20plus30.com