I have moved on from the Ageing Business

In July 2003 I wrote my first blog post about what became to be known as the ‘Ageing Business’. It was titled ‘Web usability – still not taken seriously’. How seriously is taken today? More than it was, not as much as it should.

Looking back over the topics I blogged about - there are 3,000 posts – it is surprising (and depressing) how little has changed.

I have now moved on from writing, thinking and consulting about ageing and marketing to pastures new. However, I thought I would leave the blog in place because it provides a good historical account of how marketers tried to cope - or totally ignored – demographic change and the fact that consumers were, and still are, getting older.

My business website (20plus30) has been 'retired' and now acts as a portal to my other websites. If you want to know what I have been doing with my life you can find out from dickstroud.com. Details about may latest book (nothing to do with ageing) can be found at tthe secondary mod

I think the future is bright, for those of you working in the Ageing Business. But then I have always been an optimist about the subject. 

Have we committed a terrible blunder with our assumptions about the future price of property?

There are three reasons why this is my first blog post for 9 months. I have been busy enjoying myself and working on a new project that has nothing to do with marketing or ageing. The main reason is that the Ageing Business seems as if it has gone into stasis. Sure there have been lots of reports, conferences and 'events' but little has changed. Same old issues - same absence of innovative solutions.

Today I read two articles that made me stop and think. One was in the WSJ and the other The Times, Both were about property and (unfortunately) both are behind paywalls. I have provided the links in case you are subscribers.

 OK Boomer, Who’s Going to Buy Your 21 Million Homes? is the better article and provides the most statistical data to substantiate its arguments.

Don't be put off by the headline that couldn't help inject the banal 'OK Boomer' insult that has suddenly got so much attention. The issue it identifies is the mismatch between a lot of property that is owned by older people and those that want (more likely don't want) to buy it.

Think about this statistic:

Seniors are expected to vacate roughly 21 million homes over the next two decades. That’s more than the amount of new properties sold during a previous two-decade period that ended with a housing boom.

Now here is the nasty bit. The people (the young) the generation of buyers of these properties is smaller in size and - as they constantly tell us - in a precarious financial position. Neither of these things are magically going to change. Add to that the properties owned by dying boomers are likely to be in places that the young don't want to live. Remember that the trend for the urbanisation of the population is as powerful as demographic ageing. Do you see the problem?

We have a mismatch between the supply of property and the expectations of property price. How many people have you heard say 'my house is my pension'? Not any more buster. How many times have you heard the arguments about care being supported by the sale of older person's property? Maybe that aint going to happen.

The article in The Times was saying much the same thing.

The bottom line to this blog post is this - I think our assumptions about future property price and property demand is probably dreadfully wrong. I think we are going to have lots of property in the wrong place being sold for prices that are far below expectations.

Maybe some bright spark in the Ageing Business is thinking about this issue. Somehow I doubt it. Dick Stroud

Boring old demographics keeps determining our future

I have always thought that demographics is a bit like statistics. It is one of those subjects that we know is mighty important but rarely take the time to understand. For marketers it is much more exciting to study branding strategies or the latest craze in social media than get their heads around multiple linear regression theory.

When I talk to people about median ages, support ratios and the suchlike I can see their attention rapidly evaporate.

Occasionally you get an article along the lines 'demographics are our destiny'. Well, know what, that is true.

Yesterday's Wall Street Journal had an interesting article about 'China’s Demographic Danger Grows as Births Fall Far Below Forecast'. I will not bother to give you the link since it is behind an expensive paywall.

The theme of the article is that :

The number of newborns in China dropped to 15.23 million in 2018, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That’s two million less than 2017 and 30% below the median official forecast of more than 21 million.

The outcome of this fact is that if you look at the median age population of China V US you see that China is fast catching up with the US and will soon become 'older'. Of course neither of them are as ancient as Japan.



You might know that we in the UK are looking forward to exiting the EU  - not everybody but 17.5 million Brits. One subject that hasn't been discussed is what this will do to the median age of Europe.

Have a look at the chart and it will give you a clue. If I was an economic planner sitting in Brussels (thank God I am not) I would be worried (mighty) by the implications of these numbers, especially for Spain and Italy. The big up side is that both countries have very high youth unemployment so there will be lots of young to look after the old. Unfortunately, the downside is that there will not be the government funds to pay for it.

So what is the conclusion of my blog? Demographics will tell you a lot about the long term shape of your markets but little about how you will meet your annual marketing and sales budgets. Dick Stroud

Whatever happened to tech-enabled care?

If you read my blog you know that I have been pondering why the care industry seems immune to the benefits of technological innovations?  Why, despite a booming business in running conferences, competitions, hackathons, technology accelerators and all the other wonderful sounding events, so few start-up companies have survived long enough to deliver any value - let alone profits!

I know there are some great technology start-ups, with really innovative and robust business ideas,  but most of ones that are for ever being reported by the Ageing Business look like mediocre technology seeking a problem to solve.

I thought that it was pointless to keep 'going on' about the subject. You either believe me or not. That said, I have just read the latest blog post from Laurie Orlov who seems to be making the same point. At least I know I am not the only person with this opinion.

The Ageing Business should step back for a moment and ask itself why tech and care don't seem to be mixing. Maybe start by reading Laurie's blog. Dick Stroud

The 60+ will generate over half of all urban consumption growth in the developed countries

It is always nice to have a new quote from McKinsey about the ageing business.

This one come from a very recent publication Navigating a world of disruption.

The retired and elderly over 60 in many developed countries are increasingly important drivers of global consumption. The number of people in this age group will grow by more than one-third, from 164 million today to 222 million in 2030. We estimate that they will generate 51 percent of urban consumption growth in developed countries, or $4.4 trillion, in the period to 2030. That is 19 percent of global consumption growth. The 75-plus age group’s urban consumption is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.5 percent between 2015 and 2030. In addition to increasing in number, individuals in this group are consuming more, on average, than younger consumers are, mostly because of rising public- and private-healthcare expenditure.

If nothing else, AARP is persistent in promoting the value of the 50+

When I first became involved in the Ageing Business - a long, long time ago - AARP had been at it for years. And here they are today, still plugging away to make corporate America aware of the economic values of oldies. AARP still defines older as being those aged 50+ - that is 132 million Americans.

Let's not get sidetracked by definitions of old. My reason for writing this blog posting is to comment on AARPs recent report about how the 50+ use technology (2019 Tech and the 50+ Survey). What caught my attention was the press release about the organisation's attendance at CES 2019 where it showcasing the ' $7.6T in Annual Economic Activity for Americans aged 50+'

There is no doubt that the tech uptake amongst older consumers has increased (that's stating the obvious) but I have my doubts about AARP's forecasts for the usage levels in the older age groups - especially the 70+.

The research sample that is providing all these forecasts is 1,456 Americans aged 50+ who took part in an online survey. Now maybe the clever people at the research company made allowances for the significant numbers of older people who are not online and those with very basic digital skills. Surely, they don't believe their research sample, who is willing and capable of completing an online survey, is representative of the range of digital interests of the old age group?

So I am holding up a warning sign. The graphs are great and it contains lots and lots of numbers but you need to remember the research sample and how they were canvassed. My guess is that it over states the level of digital literacy and engagement.

Hopefully a bright spark from AARP can convince me I am wrong. Dick Stroud

Saga has another attempt to raise its sagging fortunes

Cards on the table time - I have never been a fan of Saga. I know I should have been because it is one of the few companies that targeted old consumers, but my professional dealings with the company have never been good - I haven't been impressed.

Way back in 2014 I wrote about 'the sorry saga of Saga' when its launch on the stock market was a disaster. From time to time people have asked me about the company and I have always given the same, negative response.

As you can see from the company's share price, I am not alone in being unimpressed.

As reported in Marketing Week, the company is having another go to reposition itself. Part of this is a new ad campaign (see above). This has the novel idea of instead of the customers saying how marvellous a place is you hear the comments of the locals, praising the travellers. Mmmmm, other than being 'new' and 'original' I am not sure that it will deliver the hoped for response. Time will tell.

Now for another admission. I am a customer of Saga. I use the company's car insurance. The reason being that got me onto its web site and made the product purchase so simple that it got my custom. It had nothing to do with its travel offering or its long gone association with oldies. It was the excellence of its product.

If the company is going to succeed then that will be the key. It will succeed in spite of a notional attachment to older consumers. Dick Stroud

Will people be more tech savvy in ten years time? Answer - No.

If you don't already subscribe to NN/g's newsletter. then you should.

Ever since I was first involved in 'all things internet' (a long time ago) I have followed Jakob Nielsen's writings. He was talking about UX before anybody had any idea what it was and explaining its importance to improving the CX (before anybody had coined the term).

His 2 mins of musings about our the lack of desire to remain 'tech savvy' is a must for all designers.

So many times I have heard somebody in their 30s telling me how the issue of digital literacy will end when the current crop of oldies die off.  The arrogance to think that when they are the same age that they will automatically have stayed current with tech developments is laughable.

Hopefully the use of voice and better interfaces will make it easier for everybody to use tech but at the limits of a device's functionality will always be the preserve of those willing to devote energy and time to understanding new tech ideas. That is a small (ish) group of people and will probably always be the young rather than the old.

Don't believe me? How much of the functionality available on your smartphone do you utilise? Bet it is less than 20% Dick Stroud

PS. Here is a good example of the practical advice that you get from NN/g - this is about the use of 'breadcrumbs' on computer and mobile devices. 

Ponderings for 2019

I guess the most obvious and most likely thing that 2019 will bring is pretty much the same things as 2018 bestowed. Somehow that doesn't seem the right thing an observer about the ageing business should be saying - 'just read what I said about 2018'.

I have no doubt there will be the usual round of longevity conferences and innovation events that will be as memorable as they were in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. Lots of ground breaking technologies and insights and lots and lots of hand wringing that 'something must be done'.

Enough of the cynicism. At long last there are signs that the simplistic notions that we have about the intersection of ageing/urbanisation/technology are being questioned.

It was terrific to see that Elizabeth White's book (55, Underemployed, and Faking Normal) has gained so much exposure and is now being published by Simon & Schuster. For too long we have had a uni-polar view of baby boomers and Elizabeth provides the balance and a necessary shot of reality. Good to see that the WSJ is running a series that addresses the same issues.

There is no doubt that voice activation and wearable technology are  moving rapidly from the tech enthusiast to become mainstream parts of our tech-life. Sure, much of it is very clunky but it is only the beginning of its evolution.

Certainly in the UK, as it always has been in the US, the fragmentation of the healthcare industry into private and public is well underway. In 2018 we had another £XXX chucked at the NHS which will make next to no difference. When the system is bust, no end of tinkering will make any permanent difference. There will lots of money to be made in the private healthcare sector.

The same fragmentation of private/public continues in the care industry - as it has been for the past 5 years. Somehow the industry wobbles on from year to year with the only certainty being the reduction in standards and availably of care available to those reliant on the state. The second generation of care companies, those that are not staggering under the mountain of debt from earlier financial engineering by the hedge fund industry, will do amazingly well.

Having just spent a month travelling to and around Australia it is pretty clear that the 60+ are driving much of the luxury travel industry. I guess we all know this but when you look around and see your own age group being the dominant demographic, it drives home the message. Travel that caters to the wealthier boomer and their parents will continue to do well. A secondary observation from my travels is economic power of the Chinese consumer. As Europe convulses over its internal squabbles the political establishment seem oblivious to the shifting of the world’s economic centre of gravity towards Asia Pacific. The ageing business is still musing about what lessons to learn from Japan’s demographics. They should be obsessing about what is happening in China.

2018, like 2017, has seen a rising howl of anguish from the Millennial Generation, who, after a decade of being told they are victims, have it hard-wired into their world outlook - yes I know I am generalising. One nasty result of this victimhood is the acceptance of ageism that permeates much of the public discourse. How strange that a generation that preens itself on its impeccable open mindedness feels that it is OK to be horrible to older people. I am sure on a one-to-one relationship with their parents they are perfectly nice, but that doesn’t stop them blaming oldies for everything from Brexit, Trump, lack of housing, poor wages etc etc. Unfortunately, I don't see this changing in 2019.

So the bottom line about 2019 is that it will be much like 2018. Those that see through the shiny gloss of the ageing business will be making money. Those that believe the dominant narrative of the business will reach 2020 feeling much as they do entering 2019. Dick Stroud

Is innovationitis contagious?

It is a bad sign when the ‘noise’ about a new idea is not matched by tangible results.

You know what I mean - ‘blockchain and tokens will devastate the financial services industry’. Really? No sign of it happening anytime soon. 

‘AI and robotics will cause XX% of people to lose their jobs’. Maybe, but are we talking next week, next month, next decade? 

The same thing about the way the ageing business has discovered ‘innovation’. No doubt the resolution and hard work of the people at Aging2 has done much to forward the concept but I have to say I have seen very little evidence that all the workshops, hacks, conferences, competitions and general collections of bright minds has resulted in much in the way of commercial success. More importantly, no signs (that I have seen) that any innovations have improved the lives of older people.

Cripes, even the UK is getting involved in the innovation world.

Please tell me I am wrong. Please send me lots of examples of how all this innovation stuff has resulted in successful commercial products. No doubt it has been good for the ageing industry - not doubt about that - but as far as contributing to the quality of life of older people? Dick Stroud

Gen Z and Millennial marketers love diversity - just one exception - oldies

The image company Shutterscock has published some data showing how open minded and inclusive Gen Z and Millennial marketers are when it come to using imagery and advertising messages that embrace same-sex couples, transgender models, people with disabilities and gender-fluid models.

Big round of applause!!!!

The strange and amusing thing is that these open minded paragons of virtue have a huge blind spot (sorry, impaired vision disability) when it comes to how they deal with age. As long as the same sex couples, transgender models, people with disabilities and gender fluid models all reflect their own age group then they are fine. Attempting to make their advertising age-neutral is another whole ball game.

Guess there are few virtue signaling points to be awarded to the age-aware Millennial.

Do you detect a note of cynicism? How perceptive. Dick Stroud

'Growing Old Profitably' - focus on private payers - ditch local authority customers

I am amazed that it has taken the care industry so long to realise that sticking with local authority customers leads in one direction - and that is a place you don't want to go.

We all know the gap between the fees paid by private payers and council clients. For too long we have had the nasty practice of making those that fund their own care subsidise those referred from social services. It is another form of taxation.

This was never going to be a stable situation yet only now are we seeing how the story is going to unfold. This week's Economist had an article titled 'Growing Old Profitably'. The title should have been 'How to grow profitably on the old'

A summary of the Economist's reporting.

Much of the care industry is in terrible finance shape. It is estimated that England has lost 3,700 beds since 2012. It is not only beds that have been lost but also the profits of providing care.

There a few markets where demand is soaring as profits plummet..

Care UK's boss, Andrew Knight, is quoted saying that the only way to provide care is to take more residents who pay their own way. Nobody can argue with that assumption.

Of course this will cause the plight of care companies that rely on state funded customers to worsen.

What we are seeing is the a clear division between the care that older people will receive depending on the size of bank balance. Those companies that want to keep their selling costs low and rely on a contract from the local council will have to radically reshape how they deliver care. Failing that their financial demise is just a matter of time. A sad situation but one that has been very obvious for years. Dick Stroud

Pity the media noise about millennials is not matched by their financial importance

I feel sorry for millennials. They are suffering from the same stereotypical generalisations that has plagued their parents and grand parents. Marketers think they are the only game in town. Many employers believe they are an infuriating bunch to manage. As always they reality is much more complicated.

The one thing that is for sure is that for some time - like a decade or two - their parents and their parent's parents will be a lot more important to the wealth management industry.

This chart, from The Deloitte Centre for Financial Services, says it all. It shows the total value of financial assets held by each generation.



A much repeated saying about China is that it will get old before it gets rich. Like all simplistic statements it has some elements of truth. I wonder if we will soon be saying the same about millennials. Its ironical that the intergenerational fairness lobby are succeeding in cutting benefits to older people but it will the young, when they reach their parent's age, that will suffer the most from these changes. Weird old world. Dick Stroud

Not much going on in the ageing business - the Apple Watch 4 is worth a few words

It is 6 months ago that I last wrote a blog post. I am very touched by the number of people who contacted me to enquire if I was OK. I am in fine health (I think) and my silence has been intentional - for a couple of reasons.

The first these is positive - I have been working flat out on another project that has nothing to do with ageing. In addition I spent a lot of time enjoying myself.

The other reason for my silence is negative - there is precious little new taking place.

When you have been reading, writing and talking about all things ageing, for the last 15 years, you reach a point where nothing much new seems to be happening. Perhaps that is inevitable?

For sure the ageing-blob is alive and kicking and seems to be doing OK. Lots of research and conferences about the same things it was researching and having conferences about 5 years ago. Thankfully for the blob there is a constant stream of new people, with a passing interesting in the subject of longevity/demographics or whatever you want to call the subject. It is sad when much of the research and commentary is portrayed as being new, rather than a re-hash of previous work.

Unfortunately, the BIG issues of ageing remain and their consequences become more acute. Little being done to solve the problems or to capture the opportunities. Rather, all the attention seems to on trying to find technological solutions to ageing's peripheral issues. Well done to the guys who are making money out of this funding and innovation business, but I haven’t seen much in the way of new products and services that are going to change the world or indeed make a profit.
I suspect that I am taking an overly negative view of things and will keep a watching brief on the subject and comment, from time to time. Hopefully, there is some genuinely innovative thinking going on. I will be the first to comment upon it when it breaks cover.

That all said, the launch of the Apple Watch 4 is worthy of comment. Not the most exciting of presentations but the new functionality is most interesting. The biggest round of applause from the audience came with the announcement of its Electro Cardiogram (ECG) feature. I would guess the average age of the audience was less than 30 and here they were getting excited about a feature that very few of them would need for a couple of decades. it is a weird world. The watch also has the ability to detect falls. OK, I guess a lot of the audience cycle and it might be relevant to them but most falls occur to older people.

So it looks like Apple is expanding the market for the watch from fitness to now include health, and particularly health issues that affect older people.
You cannot please everybody and Laurie Orlov has had a rant (her words not mine) about the way the fall functionality was implemented. I think she is being a tad unfair. For me it is great to see a world leading supplier starting to add some sophisticated features to its product line that are of particular use to older consumers. What's the betting that by the time the Apple Watch 6 is launched it will be something that is prescribed by NHS GPs. Dick Stroud

Is marketing in such a bad state as depicted by Mark Ritson - probably

When reading about the exploits of marketers I spend more and more of my time shaking my head in disbelief. How can they be so dumb?

The obsession with digital - the inability to understand the importance of demographics - the lack of understanding about what makes consumers buy products.

If you have 30 mins and don't mind Mark's colourful language then he will provide you with some answers. Nothing and everything to do with ageing. Dick Stroud

Google's research about voice activate speakers and older consumers

You don't often see Google researching and commenting about older consumers. This might not have been the largest research study in the world (301 active voice-activate speaker owners in the US aged 55+) but it is a start and it provides some interesting insights.

“It's an entity in your life that's always behind the scenes for things you need” was the highlighted comment in article. I have been using the Apple HomePod for the past month and I kind of understand what this comment means. I suspect that the Hey Siri functionality I am using is behind the curve, unlike the brilliant sound quality of the speakers, but I am increasingly using the facilities.

I was a tad skeptical about the technology to start with but I can really see its uses.

Interestingly, the Google article said that the research group had made a lot of suggestions of additional features that could be added to make the technology even more useful. Lots of them around health and safety.

If you are interested in the behaviours of older consumers I suggest you read the article and get using voice activated speakers. Dick Stroud

How KFC used FCK to turn a disaster into a marketing triumph

Around the same time as Oxfam was suffering a major meltdown in its brand credentials, KFC's stores were running out of an important ingredient in their main product - chicken. Due to a logistics nightmare the stores in the UK were having to shut. No chicken no happy customers.

This article by Mark Ritson describes how the company turned this nightmare into a marketing triumph.

What's this got to do with ageing and marketing? Absolutely nothing to do with ageing but a lot to do with marketing.

It is informative and very funny. Well worth reading. Dick Stroud

New report from Bain : The Collision of Demographics, Automation and Inequality

Warning. This report from Bain is not something to embark upon if you only have a couple of mins. It is long and detailed and it makes you think. Those words aren't code for saying it is boring. It is anything but that. It is terrifying.

Forecasting a decade out is mighty difficult but the waves of change that Bain's report discusses are not fanciful or trendy concepts. They are heavy duty economic and social changes and they aren't going away. The difficulty for Bain is drawing conclusions from combining these trends. That's the hard bit.

I have selected a few items from the report for you to consider.

First the importance and the eventual end of consumer spending growth generated by baby boomers

Baby boomer spending growth will peak in the 2020s before tapering. Compared with previous generations, baby boomers will extend the period of high-income earning and spending by about 10 years. The sheer size of this generation means there are considerable market opportunities for most goods and services, including big-ticket items such as housing and transportation. But growth based on this demographic shift will become more concentrated among the top 20% of households.

Take note of the final sentence "concentrated among the top 20% of households". OK, here is what that means in marketing-speak. You have to have a refined, no an ultra-refined, marketing strategy to target this group.

The next chart is mighty interesting and it raised an issue I have never considered. That means you almost certainly haven't considered it.
Bain has combined the direct consumption of older people with 'subsidised consumption' to calculate a total household consumption figure. That is a genuinely new way of presenting the data. Not only is it new, but it makes a lot of sense. So when you look at an oldie you see somebody who is spending they own income/wealth and the state's wealth.

The final chart shows the way that people aged 75+ have increased their household expenditure since 1984 and what has accounted for the growth. Think to yourself - has your business been able to capture any of this consumption growth?

It is going to take me sometime to understand all the implications of Bain's insights. I really do suggest you spend some time getting to grips with what they have to say. Dick Stroud

It is hard to think of Facebook as being a 'mature' brand but I guess that is what it is

According to the Guardian and eMarketer 

In 2018, 2.2 million 12- to 17-year-olds and 4.5 million 18- to 24-year-olds will regularly use Facebook in the UK, 700,000 fewer than in 2017, as younger users defect to services such as Snapchat, according to eMarketer.

A surge in older users means over-55s will become the second-biggest demographic of Facebook users this year.

Pretty much the same thing seems to be happening in the US. 

Facebook was launched way back in 2014. A decade ago it had 145,000,000 users who will now be aged in their 30s.

Brands are omnipotent until they are not. When I first worked in New York and passed the Pan Am building I would never have thought that the brand could possibly disappear. It did.

I doubt if Facebook is going to disappear but it is going to have to get used to dealing with multiple ages of users and that is going to be mighty difficult. Dick Stroud

UK comes bottom of the OECD pension list

As I am always saying, some older consumers (probably the majority) are 'income poor'. If you want more evidence to support that claim then look at this report about the latest OECD research.

Of course the level of pensions being paid by many of these countries (Portugal, Italy, Spain, France, Ireland) cannot be afforded and will have to be cut - but that is another story. Dick Stroud