Ed should do his demographics homework

Speeches at political conferences are not renowned for their intellectual brilliance but they do provide, especially when it is the first one of a new party leader, a good idea about their major ‘branding’ themes.

So it was with Mr Edward Milliband the new leader of the Labour Party.

Two images tell you everything.

First, look at the eye-candy that was sprinkled around the new leader. Lots of ‘bright’ young things. Second, have a look at the word cloud of his speech.

The top scoring word 'generation' appeared 30 times.
Gordon Brown appeared once. Even the much abused word ‘society’ could only make 17 appearances.

Clearly, young Edward was trying to establish a single brand message – Labour is young – Labour is all about the “new generation”.

A free bit of consultancy to the guy. This is a very fickle, numerically small and anti-political base upon which to set your hopes. It will be interesting to see how long it takes him to get a few older faces into the picture - literally. Interesting to see that the Guardian shares my view. Dick Stroud

The promiscuous over-50s fuelling UK STI epidemic - NO

The sexual health charity FPA has just issued a warning of the rising sexually transmitted infection (STI) rates and poor sexual health in groups of men and women aged over 50.
The press release says:

Almost 13,000 men and women over the age of 45 were diagnosed with an STI in 2009, double the numbers in 2000. Last year more men over 45 got genital herpes than 16–19 year old men and over 5,000 men and women over 45 were diagnosed with genital warts in 2009 alone. Chlamydia diagnosis in women has also gone up 95% in nine years

Shock and horror and a minute giggle perhaps?

A quick look at the data used in the press release gives a different story.

In 2009, the total services provided in the UK for sexually transmitted diseases were 2,323,238 – a big number compared with the 13,000 45+ men number.

The press release highlights that more older men than 16-19 years were diagnosed with genital herpes. From a quick look through the numbers this is the only category of STI where this was the case.

What was interesting was the geographic spread of STI. Again, it was only a quick scan of the numbers but the North East of England appears to STI capital of the UK.

Is there a problem with STI and older people? Answer = yes. Does it warrant the scary headlines? Answer = NO.

What it doesn’t warrant is this appalling ad campaign that has been launched.

Forget about the quality of the creative (if you can) but using advertising to reach such a small group is not the best use of promotional spend, especially when there is likely to be other characteristics that enable you to target the vulnerable (perhaps randy is a better word) audience more effectively – like geography. Not good. Dick Stroud

I hate averages

The next time the news reader drones on about the rate of inflation and how it has gone up or down do remember that there is not one “inflation rate” but multiple rates depending on the age of the individual.

The Alliance Trust Research Centre has done some fascinating work showing how inflation varies by age and how it has varied over time. Click on the images to enlarge.

Why does inflation depend on age? The spending weights table shows how the share of spend varies with age. For instance, a 30 year old will spend far less of their outgoings on food than a 75 year old. Since the rates of inflation for food, electricity, gas, petrol and clothing are all different it means the rate of inflation they experience will vary accordingly.

We are now in the eleventh consecutive month when 50-64 year olds face the highest rate of inflation (4.2%), which is 35% higher than the official headline rate of 3.1%. If you are 75+ you will be suffering the lowest rate.

Is this important to marketers? You bet, since it means that the disposable spend of certain age groups is eroding faster than others. Dick Stroud

Brand owners go digital to engage consumers – a decade late

AdWeek has an article about the way that marketers are splitting into those that “get it” and those poor saps who still think marketing is all about designing brochure and mail shots. I jest, but only a little.

The chief digital honcho at Accenture Interactive said that there is a fault line rapidly emerging among executives.

"One camp sees the shift to digital as a terrific opportunity to embrace a reinvention of marketing - the methods and processes and essence of what good marketing means – the other camp agrees things are changing, but are not yet clear on what the next generation of marketing needs to be."

Sprint’s marketing supremo said: "If you're a CMO and you're not deeply engaged and intimately knowledgeable when it comes to all things digital, then you're stuck in a prior decade and destined to fail."

Good grief, I cannot believe that this dumb argument is still going on.

Back in 2001 I wrote a paper called Interactive Marketing needs Interactive Marketers. It was obvious to me (and most other people at the time) that digital had changed the very essence of marketing and that marketers had to acquire a whole new skills set.

Here we are, 10 years later, and still talking about the need for marketers to embrace all things digital.

It is a bit like two other arguments that go back even longer – like 20 or even 30 years.
“Why isn’t marketing more influential in the boardroom”
“Why is it so difficult to synchronise a company’s IT and business strategy”

Each new generation that encounters these problems think they have discovered something new, rather than something horribly boring.

I

An excellent report from MetLife about Ageing in Place

According to the MetLife report on Aging in Place 2.0: Rethinking Solutions to the Home Care Challenge we need some radical new thinking to enable older people to stay in their homes.

The MetLife report focuses on the age 65+ population although it is most applicable to the 85+.

The report contains both interesting facts (like the analysis of disabilities by age) and some nice conceptual models (like the continuum of care spectrum).

If Ageing in Place is your business then this is a must read.

As somebody who is attempting to organise a package of Ageing in Place I have to say that there is a vast gulf between the theory and reality.This is a good report but what it lacks is an injection of the harsh reality of how things work (more accurately don't work) in practice.

Many years ago in the UK there was a lot of time, money and effort put behind the concept of "Care in the Community". In theory this sounded just as plausible as Ageing in Place. Why do we keep people who cannot cope, for mental or physical reasons, in institutions when they could be cared for "in the community".

The easy, and financially beneficial bit, was shutting down the institutions. The hard bit was the community care.

Today the UK is still paying the price for this nice idea. The poor souls are back in institutions, except now they are prisons not places designed to help them.

I do hope the Ageing in Place concept does a better job of things. Dick Stroud

20 Mbs broadband services for oldies - dream on

The average broadband speed in the UK is 5.2Mbps. This is a tad misleading. If you are forced to use the old fashioned copper wire broadband then your average speed is 3.3 Mbs. Those people living in large towns and able to hook-up to optical fibre (less than half the population) get a speed of 8.7Mbps.

Lots of people I know are lucky to get a download speed of 1 Mbs.

Why am I telling you this.

Well, OFCOM has just published a 140 page report about Next Generation Services for Older and Disabled People. These are services requiring 20+ Mbs.

It is a bit like giving a book about advanced French cookery to somebody who can only afford fish fingers.

If you think it is worth the time you can download the report from here. Dick Stroud

You need a computer to use an iPad

For months I have been going on about the wonder of apps and the iPad.

The product’s single biggest weakness, as a device that radically changes the way older people use the Internet, is the limitation that it must connect to iTunes. Both the product's activation and software updates require iTunes connection.

This is not a problem for me and zillions of other older people but it makes it impossible to pitch the iPad as standalone devices. Right now, no computer, no iPad.

As long as this situation continues it will be a brilliant/magical adjunct not but not a replacement.

The Appleblog has a great article about this point. Apparently in Apple’s third quarter results conference call the point was raised by analysts as a limitation of the device.

I am sure if Apple’s brainpower was focused on this ‘problem’ they could find an answer. If they don’t they will be missing out on a good slug of the older market. Dick Stroud

Facebook users in Naples Florida

One of my posts about Facebook discussed the way the social networking site stops segmenting its audience when they reach the ancient age of 64 years old. This posting was repeated on the Futurelab blog.

A comment to the posting referenced another blog that analysed Facebook's users in Naples Florida,

I don't know why but I was surprised to see that 36% are 46+.


I have been to Naples many times. It is a charming sea side town.


I guess my like of the place is shared by a lot more older people. At this size of audience it makes it worthwhile to consider using Facebook as an advertising/social communications channel. Dick Stroud

Gerontological Society of America's newsletter

Amongst other things, the Gerontological Society of America disseminates gerontological research knowledge to researchers and practitioners.

Their latest newsletter is now available and contains some interesting stuff. Worth a read. Dick Stroud

Overly pessimistic view of apps and all things 'i'

Anybody who regularly reads my blog know that I am always singing the praises of Laurie Orlov’s blog - Aging In Place Technology Watch. It is the place to read about ageing in place technology and I just love the perspective she brings to the subject and her style of writing.

However, I do think she is taking an overly pessimistic view about all things apps and ‘i’.

Maybe it's the amazing success of apps/iPad/iPhone that makes people (including me) reckon they will have a major impact on the way older people use technology. Maybe it is unrealistic to think that in such a short space of time a new (ish) technology can make such a change.

Unfortunately, there is only a small amount of market data available for us to make any judgements and indeed the iPad has only been on sale for 22 weeks. Ms Orlov is right to advise caution about getting caught up in the ‘i’ hype.

I would really like to read what she thinks about the innate benefits/weaknesses of the technology to be applied to older age groups. Whatever its limitations we must remember is the huge economies of scale that are possible with the iPad,compared with specialist devices and that we are on iPad Version 1 - think what it will be like when we have iPad Version 5?.


I am going to stick my head out and say that the apps/tablet/transducer/Micro-mechanical-device combination will be the driving force to deliver services to older people in the coming 2-3 years. I guess we will have to wait and see. Dick Stroud

Circus September newsletter is published

The September edition of Millennium’s newsletter (Circus Online) has been published.

Some interesting content, including a few words from me about the iPad. Dick Stroud

Read my lips – the residential care business is in for big problems

The weekend press was full of the trials and tribulations of Southern Cross, the UK’s largest provider of care.

Southern Cross runs 750 homes with 45,000 staff and cares for 33,000 elderly or disabled people. The average age of its residents is 85 and analysts believe it has about 10% of the market.

Like so many of the largest care providers, Southern Cross and Four Seasons, were more a “property play” than anything to do with providing care.

Unfortunately, when the game of musical chairs stopped (i.e. when property prices stopped rising, credit became difficult and nobody was willing to keep inflating the company’s value) it hit the buffers. Just to make thing a tad worse, we have a recession, so the main income stream (fees from local authorities) is being squeezed.

With shares trading at 35p (they were 600p in 2007) and its value cut from £3 billion to £2 billion (if they are lucky) Southern Cross is in a bit of pickle.

Let’s be honest, it is not only the company that is in a bind. The bank that lent them the money (guess who?) is sitting on a loss. Yep, you guessed it (RBS). And who owns RBS? Yep, you got it right, the UK taxpayer.

When 750 “for sale” signs start going up all of the UK there is going to be a lot of panicky MPs fearing local headlines: “Government does nothing whilst care home closes.” You think I am joking?

If this were an isolated instance, the result of inept management, then it could be dismissed. Unfortunately, it isn’t and it is only just the beginning the problems.

This accountant’s report shows that insolvencies are up by 47% for suppliers to public sector compared with
the same period in 2009. All providers of care are going to be suffering from a constraint on their fees and increase in their costs (as inflation keeps doggedly high).

This situation provides massive opportunities for the care providers who understand what is happening and have the ambition and management skills to exploit the industry’s problems. Few of them will. I suspect the reaction will to bury their head as firmly in the sand as possible and hope it will blow over. It will not. Dick Stroud

AARP recognises the usefulness of bloggers

Fancy a trip to AARP’s event in Orlando and the chance to have your pearls of wisdom read by the world? Well here is how to do it…

This is a chance to be the eyes and ears of AARPs membership, sharing news, information and stories with those unable to attend the event and to have a great time doing it! You will have a media pass to the event and the opportunity to meet and interview high profile speakers.

Up to three winning bloggers will get an all-expenses trip to Orlando@50+, be published and promoted on the AARP's blog, Twitter and Facebook page and will be given a Flipcam (to keep) to document their experiences.
Sound interesting?

I hope the UK age related organisations are reading this and start to incorporate bloggers in their communications strategies. Dick Stroud

Employing older workers

Two people, who should know about the subject, have got together to write a book titled, Managing the Older Worker: How to Prepare for the New Organizational Order. Peter Cappelli (Director for the Centre of HR at Wharton) Resources and Bill Novelli, former CEO of AARP.

The authors explain the business case for keeping and hiring older employees, offering suggestions as to how a multigenerational workforce can be managed in ways that benefit the people and the companies.

I am surprised that there has been so little written on this subject. I always thought that in the context of the ageing population, employment was the mirror of marketing.

This is a difficult subject in the best of times. Unfortunately, we are not in the best of times. Dick Stroud

Thing about old age is you don’t get a chance to practise/practice

Very funny video. Things are not what you think they are going to be after 1 min 24 secs.

I am still amazed at the power of viral to propel a slot of home movie to an audience of 1.24 million people.

Thanks to Matt Thornhill for highlighting the video in his newsletter. Dick Stroud